Kazakhstan's score is a 4
- NFM = 1
- Government Debt = 1
- Inflation = 1
- Currency = 1
- Interest rates = 0
Aside from stubbornly high interest rates, although the direction of change is positive, Kazakhstan would have received a perfect score of 5. They have two years of Current Account Surpluses to GDP, Government debt to GDP is low at 25%, Inflation is coming down, and the currency is relatively unchanged over the last five years.
As new data comes in these scores may change. Right now, Kazakhstan has no glaring negatives.
NFM — Current Account/GDP
In the last four years, Kazakhstan has registered only one year of Current Account Deficit to GDP, which for an emerging market dependent on commodities for export revenue is impressive. Further to the impressiveness of Kazakhstan, they went from a 6% deficit in 2020 to the present surplus. Kazakhstan scores a solid 1.
Govt Debt To GDP
Astonishingly low!! 25% Government Debt to GDP is one of the lowest of all emerging markets. More impressively, the highest it was 27% in 2020, a great improvement from that time. Given this low level, and historically low level, Kazakhstan gets a 1.
Inflation
Although an elevated level of 10% would warrant a low score, Kazakhstan gets a 1 for direction of change; in the last year inflation peaked at 12.8% and is now 10.3%, a good change. 1 for direction.
Currency vs USD
Despite a high rate of absolute inflation, the currency has strengthened in the last year and is not much above its weakest point. Although it has weakened in the past months, it recovered, showing resilience. The score should be a 1.
Interest Rate
Although the interest rate is extremely high, which will overtime choke off investments, the direction of change is positive. Normally, this high rate would warrant a score of -1. But given the near-term direction of change, the score is 0.
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