the-market

Game, Set, and Match For Fewer Interest Rate Cuts in 2025.

Donald ElefsonMarket AnalystJanuary 13, 2025

The US interest rate outlook for 2025 has been like a tennis match. The opponents were 2 US interest rate cuts versus 4 in 2025.

In the first ten days of January, 2 cuts routed 4 cuts.

Data on US jobs, employment and inflation changed the game. Employment numbers were good and inflation expectations are up.

Bond yields are up, and stock market outlook may be in question.

Upcoming data will be key to watch:

January 14, 2025 Purchasing Price Index.

January 14, 2025 Purchasing Price Index.

January 15 Core CPI.

January 15 Core CPI.

January 16 US Retail Sales for December.

January 16 US Retail Sales for December.

January 17 Housing starts and building permits.

January 17 Housing starts and building permits.

Stay Tuned.

This blog is for educational and informational purposes only, covering general market trends, industry developments, and asset features. Nothing herein is investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. Etherfuse and its guests may hold stakes in some or all of the assets discussed.

Donald Elefson

Written by

Donald Elefson

Market Analyst

LinkedIn →

Continue reading

All articles →
the-market

Brazil Scoring

Brazil scores a 2 out of 5: inflation down to 4.72%, the Real up over 7% against the US dollar, and a rate cut in June. A 77% government debt-to-GDP ratio and a persistent current account deficit hold the score back — but given the yields on offer, Brazilian paper plays well above its score.

Donald Elefson · Aug 2026

the-market

Kaz Scoring

Kazakhstan scores a 4 out of 5: current account surpluses, government debt at just 25% of GDP, falling inflation, and a resilient currency. Only stubbornly high interest rates keep it from a perfect score.

Donald Elefson · Jul 2026

the-market

Mexico 1H 2026

The US dollar stood out in 1H 2026, up 2.7%, but the Mexican Peso appreciated 1.8% versus the dollar. What drove the move, the risks, and the outlook for 2H 2026.

Donald Elefson · Jul 2026