the-market

Game, Set, and Match For Fewer Interest Rate Cuts in 2025.

Donald ElefsonMarket AnalystJanuary 13, 2025

The US interest rate outlook for 2025 has been like a tennis match. The opponents were 2 US interest rate cuts versus 4 in 2025.

In the first ten days of January, 2 cuts routed 4 cuts.

Data on US jobs, employment and inflation changed the game. Employment numbers were good and inflation expectations are up.

Bond yields are up, and stock market outlook may be in question.

Upcoming data will be key to watch:

January 14, 2025 Purchasing Price Index.

January 14, 2025 Purchasing Price Index.

January 15 Core CPI.

January 15 Core CPI.

January 16 US Retail Sales for December.

January 16 US Retail Sales for December.

January 17 Housing starts and building permits.

January 17 Housing starts and building permits.

Stay Tuned.

This blog is for educational and informational purposes only, covering general market trends, industry developments, and asset features. Nothing herein is investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any assets. Etherfuse and its guests may hold stakes in some or all of the assets discussed.

Donald Elefson

Written by

Donald Elefson

Market Analyst

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the-market

Brazil, Why We Do What We Do

Lula's surprise win sent the real and Brazilian stocks down 10% and pushed the ten-year yield to 15.61%. But things are often not as bad as they first look. With Etherfuse short-term Tesouro paper paying 8+ percent over USD treasuries on a currency that just got 10% cheaper, investors are getting paid to hold Brazil.

Donald Elefson · Oct 2026

the-market

Colombia Makes Sense

US yields are blowing out, the dollar is up 3.5% and, in any other cycle, emerging markets would have cratered. Colombia's rates moved only 9 basis points more than US rates in the past month, with a 2.4% current account deficit, debt at 59% of GDP and a central bank already ahead of inflation. At 11-12%, Colombian peso short-term paper from Etherfuse makes sense to hold.

Donald Elefson · Oct 2026

the-market

The End Is Nigh?

The dollar's structural weaknesses — debt/GDP over 100%, a war with Iran, questions over Fed independence, and an unprecedented move to prop up the yen using euros — point to near-term downside. For chain-based investors that is an opening: sell or borrow dollar stablecoins and buy Mexican CETES at 5.54% or Brazilian Tesouros at 12.76%.

Donald Elefson · Aug 2026